Mana Result Shows Motorway Support

in Featured Motorways Top Debate by Jon C — November 21, 2010 at 12:32 pm | 8 comments

Followers of Wellington’s Mana by-election expected it would provide a credible test in certain areas of the electorate for the popularity of the planned MacKays to Peka Peka Expressway.
Especially as Labour’s transport spokesman Darren Hughes has been getting up in parliament on a daily basis grilling the transport minister about whether National had delayed releasing the route plans in order to stop it being an issue in Mana.
We know that the last by-election in Mt Albert saw Labour get some gains from the Waterview project being one of the contentious issues again in a section of the election, helped by Mational’s Melissa Lee badly handling the issue on the campaign trail.
Both Mt Albert and Mana are strong traditional Labour electorates. Mt Albert got an extra bounce when transport was made the main issue.

In Mana, not only has National’s highly regarded candidate reduced Labour’s election night majority to an embarrassing trickle of 1080 votes, but it seems the area affected by the motorway plans turned even more solidly to National.
Kiwiblogger David Farrar, who runs his own political polling company that supplies National, can be trusted to give the most accurate interpretation of the voting.
His analysis says of the area where there have been protests about the motorway says:

The Kapiti area voted Labour last time, and flipped to National this time. And what is more extraordinary about this is it happened despite noisy local opposition to a new expressway.

In 2008 Laban got 46% and Parata 41%. That was good enough, but there was a massive swing here as in 2010 Faafoi got 37% and Parata 47%, so the margin went from +5% to Labour to +10% for Labour – a 15% net movement. The total vote was 69% of 2008, and McCarten got 3% here.

So can conclude that those protesting the motorway are only a small section of people whose properties were directly affected?

And can we conclude that next year, despite howls from anyone whose property is affected and by Auckland city-bound public transport advocates who would hardly use the route, that the solid National seat that includes Warkworth will get an even bigger tick from those pleased the government is putting money into the rural-based region and improving their access to the north?

In the end this is all about politics and winning elections.

If there are election votes in motorways, they will happen.

What we need to make sure is that the popularity of rail projects on a local body election scale also becomes a prominent issue in the next general election campaign.

A must read is today’s Sunday Star Times column by economics commentator Rod Oram called “Going down the wrong road.”

The (Puhoi) motorway will significantly distort development patterns, thereby blighting the region. It will help push urban development out to 85km north of Auckland’s CBD over coming decades.

This will exacerbate Auckland’s weakness as a sprawling city, with dire economic consequences. Worldwide evidence shows lower density means higher infrastructure costs, favouring private over public transport and a weaker network effect. People living and working closely together generate greater wealth than those spread out.

In fact, the government knew last year the motorway was uneconomic, according to the cost/benefit analysis done for it. Likewise, the Waikato Expressway and Wellington to Levin motorway were uneconomic under conventional analysis.

That was very embarrassing for the government……..

The only solution is for the government to come clean, park its road prejudice and sit down with our three biggest cities to discuss how we can do urban development much better. If it doesn’t, our shambling cities will be to the Key government what Think Big was to Muldoon’s.”

Well argued, Rod.

Tags: Labour MacKays to Peka Peka expressway Mana Mt Albert by-election national Waterview