Keeping it In The Family

in Featured General Top Debate by Jon C — December 13, 2011 at 3:12 pm | 11 comments

The appointment of Gerry Brownlee as the new transport minister is a National stroke of genius.

It sets in chain a bid to covert the next trophy in the cabinet: the Auckland mayoralty.

One should expect no less from a crafty former foreign trader. About the only thing that has not gone right in the three years of National’s first term was that after all the drama of ending Auckland’s dysfunctional local government, the wrong man got to take charge.

John Banks, the man publicly supported at an annual National Party conference as its preferred choice for the Auckland supermayoralty, missed out. He is of course back in National’s fold in a clever ploy as a quasi-National MP set up to execute some more extreme right wing things that some in Cabinet wished they could do but would be politically risky if branded National.

But that still annoys National as it leaves Auckland’s mayoralty in the hands of a Labour supporter who keeps raving on about what some in National sarcastically term Len’s train set proposals. There are potential National friendly people in waiting to stand this time next year to challenge Brown. Auckland Councillor Cameron Brewer is the most visible but other names being whispered even include the actual architect of the supercity, Rodney Hide, if he hasn’t been given an overseas appointment by then. Public memories fade and the Tea cup Epsom saga triggered some nostalgia for the still likeable politician.

So why Brownlee?

• Steven Joyce has become the most influential member of Cabinet and is now unstoppable as Da Man after being campaign manager for National’s win. He wants to be finance minister but dumping Bill English would cause uncertainty during the wobbly economic times and make a loyal Key lieutenant grumpy. So while English can continue to pour accountant eyes over the spreadsheets and take credit for the Budget, Joyce has become the true economic powerhouse, charged as the Mr Economic Fix it guy to create economic growth in these difficult times. He also can continue his pursuit of making tertiary education courses and degrees what he considers more relevant for the workforce and trim waste from the tertiary budgets.
• Giving one of the tight four (Key, English, Brownlee and Joyce)  the transport portfolio enables the Mafioso to keep it safely in The Family. Giving transport to some new kid on the block, even Joyce think alike and former associate minister Nathan Guy, opens up the risk of a re-think on some aspects of the Joyce doctrine or the chance a more novice pair of hands could be persuaded to consider something that doesn’t fit the policy to date. So expect no change from the set direction, thanks to Gerry’s old school thinking about the portfolio.
• A line missed by commentators yesterday is that infrastructure is now folded directly into Bill English’s finance portfolio, While English has always been infrastructure minister as well as finance, these are now one enabling infrastructure decisions to be around dollars and cents, based on their economic implications with no wriggle room for sentimentality.
• Brownlee is another of National’s election heroes. Besides boosting his own majority in Ilam, he helped wipe out Labour’s long-held hold over the Christchurch area with National winning seats previously held by Labour. Even taking into account some of the city’s Labour-voting displaced unemployed  workers may have left the country in search of a new beginning and employment post-quake and so not around to vote, National’s victory was large enough to be seen as a clear vote of confidence in the way the Government had tried to address the disaster.
• To some in the North, the Minister for Earthquake Recovery’s TV appearances tend to come across as that of a stubborn bombastic bumbling Cartman-type cartoon character. Christchurch still feels a shambles with not enough being done. Those in the South, obviously see a different picture closer to hand. The Christchurch recovery is going to bite heavily into the government’s coffers this term – including repairing Christchurch’s transport.

Brownlee has never expressed any love for Auckland’s transport wishlist and a scroll through the last six years of Hansard suggests the Minister does not have a lot of time for rail either especially the buyback arrangements for the trains. Like Joyce he has acknowledged rail’s role in moving freight –something he can visibly see helping move goods around the tricky terrain of the South Island.Understandably he doesn’t get commuter rail as you don’t see many trains while growing up in Christchurch.

Buses work fine as long as the road infrastructure is in place and not earthquake damaged. It will be Brownlee’s job to argue that with his knowledge of how much money has to be spent on Christchurch, there is no way Auckland can argue for money to be spent on a CBD rail link.

He will certainly be able to persuade the rest of the Auckland-hating country.

Mayor Brown will be able to go to his next election and say the designation for the Link has progressed and now it’s just a matter of finding the funding. But the problem is that  without any Government funding Brown will have to argue what some will see as unpalatable funding options such as bridge tolls and congestion charges and even those sort of measures may still not be enough to get it across the line.

A critical paper on funding options is expected before Council early in the year. At the election, a National candidate like Brewer will also strongly argue this is not the time for such projects which does not weigh up economically.

So under clever Key’s wand,Brownlee keeps transport in a safe pair of hands, being a trusted MP from the South Island, not swayed by Auckland’s ambitions.
He will be fixated on continuing to be a champion for the provinces, spending what money can be spared on increasing the smaller region’s economy such as repairing Christchurch and boosting North Auckland’s roading.
It’s true Aucklanders have expressed a wish for the train set.

But by this time next year, the chances are that a European-led recession will be biting and already some Auckland industries are reporting a worrying slowdown. It may be the last priority on people’s mind.

• Footnote: Since writing this, my attention has been drawn to a post today by Whaleoil blogger Cameron Slater - who is very close to the National Party in Auckland. It imagines a meeting between Brownlee and Brown in the New Year with the conversation going along the lines of:

Gerry: “While you push for a rail loop that neither you nor I can afford, people in Christchurch are expecting a sewer and water system to be rebuilt, along with homes on solid land, after the year from hell we had last year.”

Len: “Christchurch’s problems are big, but we need to improve Auckland too”

Gerry: “And that’s why we will be building a road of national significance, recently mandated by the voting public, to help free up transport and economic growth for the North of Auckland and beyond. The whole reason why you now have a supercity is so you can deal with your own problems. It’s your own damn fault you over-promised on projects you can’t deliver.”

Len looks downfallen. An advisor brings in a plate of pies. Gerry helps himself.

Thus ends the first and only meeting between Len Brown and Gerry Brownlee, the new Minister of Transport.

Tags: Auckland council Brownlee congestion tax Mayor Len Brown Steven Joyce